Canadian Funding Corp Reviews CMHC Sustainability Reports

The G-8 summit starts today in L’Aquila, Italy. The G-8 are the old guard: US, UK, Germany, France, Italy, Japan, Canada and Russia. And their opinions are starting to look a little redundant in the aftermath of the credit crisis.

The credit crisis has shifted the balance of power. Not since the days of the conquistadors has there been such an imbalance. Back then the Pope was the ultimate power and carved the New World in two between Spain and Portugal. Now it’s the split between old and new economies.

The levels of debt raised by the developed nations to bail out their banking systems is crippling compared to the emerging nations.  According to recent International Monetary Fund forecasts by 2014 the debt of economies in the developed world are expected to be more than 114% of GDP (up from 78% in 2006).  The forecasts for the emerging economies (including China) is just 35% (down from 38% in 2006).

With most of the developed nations in the worst economic condition since the second world war, the balance of power is clearly shifting in favor of the large emerging nations. China and India in particular.

Added to their new found lack of financial flexibility, the G-8 nations have another major problem: a lack of harmony in their thinking. Germany and Canada have been calling for a steady wind down of the emergency liquidity measures while the UK and US continue to favor pumping cash into the economies.

On the other hand the leaders of 5 major developing Economies (China, India, Brazil, Mexico and South Africa) are holding their own parallel meeting. This follows on from the first ever BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) summit held last month in Russia. The developing powers are quickly putting in place their own structures and the old world is in danger of being left out of the new world order. The closer these developing powers become politically the less likely the dollar is to remain as the world’s reserve currency. Remember the BRIC nations currently hold some US$1.1 trillion of US government debt. At the BRIC summit Russia was calling for a move away from the US dollar.  It feels more and more like a whenrather than an if situation.

As investors, we are often faced with difficult decisions, especially those which involve putting cold hard facts ahead of personal feelings. We are entering such a phase now. We need to put aside our personal nationalism in the face of an obvious global power shift. Jim Rogers said in an interview last year that the best investment you could give your kids today is to buy them Chinese lessons. We agree.

As far as our financial portfolios are concerned we need to make sure we are having our piece of the emerging pie. There are unique risks to investing in the emerging world (e.g. political instability, weak legal systems etc) and you really have to do your homework. I would recommend keeping your exposure to less than 10% of your total portfolio. Also stick to highly liquid assets, like stocks and bonds. You don’t want to wake up finding that you never really owned that real estate you bought in China and it has been bulldozed to build a sports stadium, now do you?

http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/could-a-bric-alliance-crash-the-dollar/18846

reviewed by Moishe Alexander, CFC CEO

Existing MLS® home sales activity increased for the second month in a row in March 2009, according to statistics released by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA). The number of new listings also continued trending lower in March, which firmed up the balance of supply to demand.

Reported bu Moishe Alexander, CFC CEO.

A seasonally adjusted total of 31,135 homes traded hands nationally via the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in March 2009. This is an increase of seven per cent from the previous month, and builds on the 10.3 per cent activity gain in February. The number of transactions in March 2009 stands 18 per cent above levels reported in

January 2009, when activity sank to the lowest level in a decade.

The monthly increase in activity was largest in British Columbia (13.6 per cent), and Ontario (10.5 per cent). Sales were also up from February levels in Manitoba, Quebec, and Newfoundland & Labrador.

Actual (not seasonally adjusted) transactions numbered 35,225 units in March 2009. While this remains 13.7 per cent below levels reported in March 2008, it is the smallest year-over-year decline in six months.

The national average price for home sales via the MLS® remains below levels reached one year earlier, but year-over-year declines are shrinking. The MLS® average residential price for homes sold in March 2009 was $288,641, down 7.7 per cent from March 2008. This is the smallest year-over-year decline in six months.

The average price for homes sold via the MLS® set a new record in March 2009 in Manitoba, and remained above year-ago levels in Saskatchewan, Quebec, New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island, and Newfoundland & Labrador.

The national average price continues to be skewed downward by lower activity in some of Canada’s more expensive housing markets and by fewer transactions at the higher end of the price spectrum. British Columbia, Alberta and Ontario, where homes are more expensive, are significant contributors to the current downward trend in national average price. MLS® home sales activity in these provinces accounted for 69 per cent of national activity in March 2008, compared to 67 per cent in March 2009.

The price trend is less dramatic for the weighted national MLS® average price, which compensates for changes in provincial sales activity by taking into account provincial proportions of privately owned housing stock. The weighted national MLS® average sale price was down 4.7 per cent year-over-year in March, compared to a 5.1 per cent decline in February.

“Housing markets are starting to show signs of buyer interest because of lower prices and interest rates,” says Dale Ripplinger, President of The Canadian Real Estate Association. “We expect April sales activity will feel some effects from the federal government incentives announced in the last budget, including the increase in the maximum withdrawal allowed under the Home Buyers’ Plan, and the First Time Buyer Tax Credit.”

Q1 2009 Results
Seasonally MLS® adjusted MLS® sales activity in the first quarter of 2009 was little changed compared to the fourth quarter of 2008, declining by less than one-tenth of a per cent.

The number of homes for sale remains high, but continues trending downward. Seasonally adjusted national MLS® residential new listings numbered 208,755 units in the first quarter of 2009. This is down 6.4 per cent from the previous quarter, and represents the third consecutive quarter-over-quarter decline. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the number of MLS® residential new listings has dropped 11.9 per cent from the peak reached in the second quarter of 2008.

With sales activity increasing and new listings trending lower, the balance between supply and demand is firming up in British Columbia, Alberta, Ontario, and Quebec. These provinces have the largest influence on the national housing picture, so a firming housing market balance there in March 2009 caused the national housing market balance to tighten for the fourth time in as many months.

“A number of major housing markets are stabilizing, as buyers respond to improving affordability,” said CREA Chief Economist Gregory Klump. “Looking back to economic recessions in the early 1980s and 1990s, national resale housing activity bottomed out before the job market or economy did,” said Klump. “It will take time for ample supplies of new and existing homes to be drawn down, but demand appears to be stabilizing.”

PLEASE NOTE: The information contained in this news release combines both major market and national MLS® sales information from the previous month. The Canadian Real Estate Association has previously released these separately.

CREA cautions that average price information can be useful in establishing trends over time, but does not indicate actual prices in centres comprised of widely divergent neighborhoods or account for price differential between geographic areas. Statistical information contained in this report includes all housing types.

MLS® is a co-operative marketing system used only by Canada’s real estate Boards to ensure maximum exposure of properties listed for sale.

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) is one of Canada’s largest single-industry trade associations, representing more than 98,000 REALTORS® working through more than 100 real estate Boards and Associations. Further information can be found at www.crea.ca.

http://www.calgarymike.com/2009/04/mls-resale-housing-market-stabilizes.html